USDA Sees Tight Soybean Stocks Continuing Into the 2021/22 Crop Year

Oleochem Analytics — The 2021/22 outlook for US soybeans is for lower supplies and exports and higher ending stocks compared with 2020/21, according to the May World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report released by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA).

The soybean new crop is projected at 4.4 billion bushels, up 270 million from last year on increased harvested area and trend yields. With lower beginning stocks, soybean supplies are projected down 3% from 2020/21.

University of Missouri extension economist Ben Brown said in a video interview for Agweb published on Wednesday that soybeans are now fighting to retain the acres that they cannot lose to corn, adding that an ever-decreasing number of soybeans acres could support continued tightness in soybean supplies moving forward. 

New-crop US soybean exports are forecast at 2.1 billion bushels, down 205 million from 2020/2021, while ending stocks are projected at 140 million bushels, up 20 million from last year forecast.

World soybean ending stocks for 2020/21 came in as expected and close to last month at 87 million metric tons, while new crop was above estimates at 91.1 million metric tons.

Brazil soybean production was unchanged from last month, while Argentina soybean production was lowered 500,000 metric tons, to 47 million metric tons.

World soybean production for 2021/22 is forecast up 22.6 million tons to 385.5 million. Brazil’s crop is forecast at a record 144.0 million tons while Argentina’s crop rises 5.0 million tons to 52 million.

World soybean ending stocks are projected at 91.1 million tons, up 4.6 million, with most of the increase in China and Brazil.

Global vegetable oil consumption for 2021/22 is projected at 213.2 million tons, up 3%, led by increases for China and the US.

As showed in a previous OA story, China’s total stocks of the three major vegetable oils declined in March 2021 to record low of 1.35m MT, 17% lower than the stocks level recorded in previous month.

Global vegetable oil ending stocks are projected at 22.4 million tons, down 3% from 2020/21 and the lowest in 11 years.


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